The trust between Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi is at its lowest in the past five years. Their rivalry centers on issues of security, regional stability, and mutual accusations of supporting armed groups.
Tshisekedi accuses Kagame of supporting the M23 militia to exploit minerals in Eastern Congo, while Kagame accuses Tshisekedi of collaborating with FDLR rebels, composed of remnants of the 1994 Rwandan genocide warlords.
When Tshisekedi was first elected President in 2019, he promised to eliminate all armed groups involved in the decade-long conflict in Eastern Congo. He entrusted this task to Congo’s neighbors, Rwanda and Uganda, historically accused of plundering Eastern Congo’s minerals.
The M23: Defeat and Resurrection
After the M23 was defeated by the Congolese army and UN troops in 2013, its members found refuge in Rwandan and Ugandan camps. Years later, a faction of M23 returned to Congo’s Kivu province in Eastern Congo, near the Rwanda and Uganda borders. Led by Sultan Makenga, M23 set up a military base in Kivu, recruiting young Tutsi men in preparation for renewed conflict.
In November 2021, after eight years of dormancy, M23 launched attacks against the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC). FARDC, caught unprepared and lacking proper leadership, faced a better-equipped and rejuvenated enemy. The renewed war saw M23 make significant advances in Congo, including capturing extensive territories, raiding a FARDC military base, and downing a UN helicopter, killing UN personnel. Despite Congo’s accusations that Rwanda backs M23, Rwanda denies these allegations, even as foreign intelligence points to a connection.
Tshisekedi’s Objectives
President Tshisekedi seeks full control over Eastern Congo and aims to defeat all militias in the region, including M23. The mineral-rich eastern DRC is a significant point of contention. Rwanda has been accused of exploiting these resources through proxy groups and direct military involvement. This region holds much of Congo’s natural wealth, including copper, cobalt, vast tracts of arable land, and hydropower potential.
Tshisekedi is focused on establishing a regional force to defeat the armed rebels and aims to end Kigali’s interference through arming and financing rebels. However, his decision to bring in foreign forces has caused discord within his own army, which feels that the President has downplayed its capabilities.
Kagame’s Position
Kagame, an ethnic Tutsi, focuses on defending Tutsi rights and expanding regional power. Despite Rwanda’s small size compared to Congo, it aspires to be an economic powerhouse in the region. As a former commander of a Tutsi rebel force credited with ending the 1994 genocide, Kagame’s interests align with those of M23, which is also primarily composed of Tutsis.
Kagame has criticized the FDLR, a rebel group composed of ethnic Hutus, and accuses the Congolese government and SADC forces of collaborating with them, whom he refers to as genocidaires.
Efforts at Resolution
Despite ongoing tensions, there have been attempts to address the conflict through regional bodies like the African Union (AU) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR). Both presidents have participated in negotiations and peace talks, but a lasting solution remains elusive due to deep-seated mistrust and recurring violence.
The Luanda Process, initiated in November 2022 by Angolan President João Lourenço, addressed the DRC-Rwanda political disagreements. The first mini-summit was attended by the Presidents of DRC, South Sudan, and Angola, while Rwanda sent its foreign affairs minister.
The Nairobi Process, brokered by the East African Community (EAC), focused on armed groups and was endorsed by the Luanda Process. This initiative called for an immediate ceasefire, repatriation of foreign militaries, disarmament and demobilization, and authorized the deployment of a regional force in Eastern DRC to address non-compliant groups.
The EAC Regional Force (EACRF), led by Kenya, was meant to facilitate the Nairobi Process. However, within months of deployment, Tshisekedi accused the force of collaborating with the rebels instead of launching offensives to drive out M23 and other insurgent groups. Within a year, the troops were evacuated, casting doubt on the potential for conflict resolution.
Conclusion
The conflict in eastern DRC has broader regional implications, affecting neighboring countries. Both presidents accuse each other of destabilizing the region through support of insurgent groups and interference in each other’s domestic affairs, with efforts at conflict resolution facing significant challenges.